In Caribbean Stud poker, the house edge is quite high, more than 5.2%, even if played in a situation that favors the player. The advantage for the house comes from the structure employed by casinos on wagers. The gaming site’s edge is not because of the cards dealt, as the chances of a player or banker getting a winning hand are 50:50 in all hands.
The betting structure requires players to place a play bet and an ante bet if they want to stay in a hand. The likelihood of the player qualifying is 56%, which means that the chance of him not being eligible is 44%. In the latter situation you will only get back the ante bet, not the play bet.
True odds with optimal strategy
The true odds in Caribbean Stud poker depend on the strategies you use in the game. This is because the hands you fold or pass the ante bet, and call or raise the ante bet will be based on what a strategy requires you to do in a situation, to increase your chances of winning. The strategy you apply will play a role in determining the number of times an outcome can happen. In turn, it will affect the odds against the outcome taking place.
If a player uses the optimal strategy in the game, these are the hands and their related probabilities and true odds:
- Royal Flush - probability is 0.000084% and odds 1,190,475:1
- Straight Flush - probability is 0.00079% and odds 126,581:1
- Four of a kind - probability is 0.14% and odds 7,141.8:1
- Full House - probability is 0.083% and odds 1,203.8:1
- Flush - probability is 0.11% and odds 908.1:1
- Straight - probability is 0.22% and odds 453.5:1
- Three of a kind - probability is 1.18% and odds 83.7:1
- Two Pair - probability is 2,45% and odds 39.8:1
- Pair - probability is 11.66% and odds 7.6:1
- Ace or King - probability is 0.093% and odds 1,074:1
- Only Ante, without dealer qualifying - probability will be 13.68%, and true odds 6.3:1
The probability of the dealer winning a dealt hand while you lose is 13.68%, while the true probability of it happening is 6.3:1. You may fold a non-winning hand 1.1:1, 47.7% of the times. The probability that you will push the hand is 0.016%, with true probability lying at 62,499:1.
Basic optimal strategies to lower house edge
Here are some of the basic optimal strategies you can use to lower the house edge and increase you winning odds in Caribbean Stud Poker:
- Raise when you have a pair or better.
- Fold if you have cards less than those in the qualifying hand of the dealer (king or ace)
There are a few general decisions players have a tendency to take when dealt specific hands. Here are some of them, and the impact player decisions have on the house edge:
When a hand with King, Ace, Jack, eight, three or higher is raised, the house edge is 5.3%. It increases to 5.35% when you raise with a card that matches the dealer’s face-up card. The house will get an edge of 5.45% if you make a raise with a pair or higher. On raising a king or ace or higher, the house will get an advantage of 5.7%. You will give the house the highest advantage of 16.5% if you raise all hands.
