In Pai Gow poker you will have to make a five card hand that can win, with seven dealt cards. It is important to know the odds of this happening as your decision to play or not play a hand will depend on this. The house edge in the poker game can affect your winning odds. As you will be playing against the banker, you should use this information to decide the best strategies for winning.
Probabilities and odds of getting hands
Here are the probability and odds of winning Pai Gow poker hands:
- Pair - probability is 0.4167 and odds are 5:2
- Two Pair - probability is 0.2307 and odds are 9:2
- Straight - probability is 0.2307 and odds are 14:1
- 3-of-a-kind - probability is 0.04978 and odds are 20:1
- Flush - probability is 0.04004 and odds are 25:1
- Full House - probability is 0.02717 and odds are 36:1
- 4-of-a-kind - probability is 0.0019 and odds are 500:1
- Straight Flush - probability is 0.0012 and odds are 750:1
- Royal Flush - probability is 0.00016 and odds are 6000:1
- Five Aces - probability is 0.00000732 and odds are 140,000:1
- 7 Card Straight Flush - probability is 0.00000127 and odds are 800,000:1
- Royal Flush and Two 2s - probability is 0.00000047 and odds are 2,000,000:1
- 7 Card Straight Flush - probability is 0.00000021 and odds are 5,000,000:1
This shows that players have better odds of landing a pair when compared to any other hand in the game.
Odds of winning with both two and five card hands
Your aim should be to make the best hand out of the seven cards dealt to you - this includes the two card hand and five card hand. The probability of winning money if you have just one of the two will not be good. For instance, in case you have 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 and Jack, you will get a straight for the five card hand. However, you will not have anything for the two card hand. Your probability of winning lies with only your five card hand.
Though the overall odds are not high, players should avoid folding if they have a strong five card hand. There is a good possibility that the player will be able to win against the banker with a really strong hand. The probability of the banker having a pair is about 42%. This means you have better chances of winning with the straight than does the banker.
Impact of not banking
When a Pai Gow poker player does not bank, the house gets an advantage of 2.84% because of two factors. One is the high house commission charged on the bet. Players have to pay 5% to the gaming site on winning the bet. The house commission makes 1.57% of the edge it gets. The next aspect is the effect banking has on the odds of a player who does not opt to be the banker. The player can lose a tie with the banker. When this happens, the house will get an additional edge of 1.27%.
If a player takes on the role of the banker, his winning chances will improve. If the gaming site allows you to be the banker for half the hands you play, the negative expectation in the game will fall to 1.42%. To reduce the house edge, you will have to be the banker for more than half the hands.
